
IEA’s new analysis suggests low-emissions hydrogen production could reach 37mn tonnes a year by 2030
Despite a recent wave of project delays and cancellations, low-emissions hydrogen production is still expected to expand to 2030, though at a slower pace than once signalled, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The 2025 edition of the IEA’s Global Hydrogen Review, tracks developments across the sector with particular focus on low-emissions hydrogen technologies.
Worldwide hydrogen demand reached nearly 100mn tonnes in 2024, up 2% from 2023 and broadly in line with overall energy demand growth. Most of this demand was met by hydrogen produced from fossil fuels without emissions-capturing measures, with oil refining and industry remaining the main consumers.
Producing hydrogen from fossil fuels remains much cheaper globally, a gap widened by falling natural gas prices and rising electrolyser costs. But the report expects the cost gap to narrow by 2030 due to lower technology costs, stronger renewables growth in some regions, and new regulations.
Even so, uptake of low-emissions hydrogen is lagging behind expectations. High costs, regulatory uncertainty and slow infrastructure development have restrained growth, with production projects particularly exposed. The IEA’s new analysis suggests low-emissions hydrogen production could reach 37mn tonnes a year by 2030, down from the 49mn tonnes projected from announced projects just a year earlier.
Not all projects reach completion, meaning actual capacity is likely to be lower. Still, projects already operational, under construction or with a final investment decision are set to increase more than fivefold by 2030, reaching over 4mn tonnes per year. An additional 6mn tonnes could also materialise by the end of the decade if stronger policy support ensures demand.
“Investor interest in hydrogen jumped at the start of this decade thanks to its potential to help countries deliver on their energy goals,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “The latest data indicates that the growth of new hydrogen technologies is under pressure due to economic headwinds and policy uncertainty, but we still see strong signs that their development is moving ahead globally. To help growth continue, policy makers should maintain support schemes, use the tools they have to foster demand, and expedite the development of necessary infrastructure.”
China remains the leading force in electrolyser deployment, accounting for 65% of installed or approved capacity and nearly 60% of global manufacturing. But the report warns that Chinese producers face challenges from excess capacity, as more than 20GW per year of output far outstrips current demand.
The review also highlights the shipping sector, finding that adoption of hydrogen-based fuels will require more compatible technologies and port readiness. Nearly 80 ports worldwide already handle chemical products, offering opportunities to manage hydrogen fuels in future.
A special section on Southeast Asia notes that announced projects could boost the region’s low-emissions hydrogen production to 430,000 tonnes a year by 2030, up from just 3,000 tonnes today. Achieving this will require faster renewables deployment, targeted policies and expansion of pilot projects.